The CDU fell to 3233 of the vote the lowest since 2006

What would be the consequences for the Germany of a disappearance pure and simple Opel The social cost is undoubtedly high. The company employs directly more than 25,000 people on German soil, but, according to the Union IG Metall, is removing more 400,000 positions that should be feared, if one adds the redundancies at OEMs, dealers, distributors and affiliated companies.

A figure certainly inflated according to experts, who consider that the loss of a job in a constructor causes the destruction of two jobs among suppliers. But, as noted by the pattern of Ford Germany might fear a major disorganization of builders supply chain. The bankruptcy of Opel could induce the OEMs and beyond the difficulties for the auto sector, weakening chemical groups or manufacturers of machine tools... In the last three months, not less than 23 suppliers employing 40,000 people in Germany, are already declared bankruptcy.

Berlin will take the risk of further destabilizing a key industry The automotive sector uses it is true directly more than 750,000 people (approximately 400,000 among builders and a little less than 350,000 in equipment suppliers). According to the VDA association, which says count, it would work, in total, some 5 million Germans, or assets on eight. And sales of the sector reached EUR 290 billion in 2007, 2 times more than in 1997. Three cars on four produced in Germany are prime intended export and contribute to the title of world's leading exporter, the country would like to take advantage.

A series of criteria

Yet, the likelihood that the Government massively Opel aid seems lower every day. Unlike the pattern of the SPD, Chancellor Merkel considers indeed that Opel has no systemic risk, the difference of the Hypo Real Estate Bank, which has already received more than 100 billion euros of aid public and private. Opel is not a flagship of German technology; the manufacturer sales continued to decline in recent years, passing since 1990 of 11.5 to 7.5 of market share in Europe. Cynically, his disappearance could even contribute to strengthen the other German automakers, including Volkswagen.

Especially, massive public aid for Opel would pose a major political problem for the Chancellor, to six months in the legislative elections. The right wing of his party lives poorly growing interference of the State in the economy. At the presentation to the Bundestag of the Act for the expropriation of the shareholders of a bank "last resort", a Liberal MP compared the Minister of finance to Hugo Chavez. Liberals also surf State crypto-Socialist theme and take advantage in the polls of a transfer of voters traditionally granted to the Christian Democrats. The CDU fell to 32-33 of the vote, the lowest since 2006. Its regional barons, starting with the Minister-President of Baden-Württemberg, claimed at the time a strict distancing from the Social Democrats. This is not a coincidence if the Minister of economy (CSU) has conditioned the use of a new Fund of aid to industry to a series of criteria, which asked who can fill them all. No doubt, finally, that the Chancery will be read with great interest a recent ZDF survey, that 50 of Germans have come out against public assistance to the constructor. Only 44 are for.

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